Israel’s multi-front has just gotten one step closer to a cessation of hostilities, in the wake of the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s pro-Iran Hezbollah movement.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government and Hezbollah — the Shia Islamist militant group that backs Hamas — have agreed to end their 13-month conflict with a ceasefire brokered by France and the United States as of Tuesday.
Hezbollah has 60 days to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River while Israeli forces must also withdraw from southern Lebanon during this period.
And while this is meant to be a permanent ceasefire, violations have already taken place.
Before people get ahead of themselves, however, it’s important to note that this is a truce between Israel and Hezbollah, and its provisions do not extend to Hamas or the armed conflict in Gaza as a whole.
Trump and Netanyahu
Donald Trump as President-Elect in the current transition period has played a critical role in the brokering of this deal. One of his major goals for his second term was to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. And while his inauguration is a little over a month away, his transition team has already begun shaping U.S. foreign policies.
Trump and Netanyahu have been discussing a ceasefire for a couple weeks now, his relationship and influence over the Israeli leader being a key factor in its speedy process.
Moreover, Netanyahu has much fonder relations with the president-elect than with President Joe Biden. Other than the fact that Netanyahu ideologically aligns more with Trump than he does with Biden, Trump also set a precedent for securing Israeli interests in his first term. These initiatives include US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving our embassy there back in 2018.
All in all, it is clear that Trump has had a strong influence over Netanyahu, which has resulted in the ceasefire.
What does this mean for the scope of the war?
The regional conflict began with Hamas’ October 7 attacks, but it quickly escalated with Hezbollah attacks on northern Israeli towns the very next day followed by attacks from Yemen’s Houthi movement, another Iranian proxy.
Technically, Iran has always been indirectly involved given that Hamas is part of their proxy network, which also includes the militias supporting Syria’s regime and militias supporting the government in Iraq.
But because Hezbollah is Iran’s strongest proxy and the biggest threat to Israel after Hamas, the decimation of its leadership, which led to the ceasefire, significantly reduces the scope of this regional conflict.
How, exactly? The ceasefire would not have happened without Iran’s agreement, whose regional position has suffered a major blow. This will have Israel redirect its full attention to Gaza. A potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, however, is unlikely, given that Israel has yet to demonstrate that they have truly decimated the Hamas regime as per their main goal in Gaza.
